Picks For Wildcard Weekend

I've looked at the analysis, seen the games all season, checked the lines, and here are my picks for the wildcard games today and tomorrow:

1. Take Seattle (-3.5) over the Skins. I don't care that Washington has won four straight, the quality of the competition has been pretty bad (Cowboys mailed it in for week 17).  A backup quarterback, no matter how well he has played, isn't going to get it done in a road game in January.  He's especially not going to get it done at Qwest Field with the 12th man going crazy and (trust me, I just walked my dog) a light rain and the wind gusting to perhaps 50kph.  In metric or english units, it's going to play havok with Collins (who does seem like a nice guy and a great story) but not with Hasselbeck.  The Seahawks have the home-rain advantage should be -7.5.   I think this game will either be pretty close and desperately ugly or Seattle will get control early and just stay out of trouble.
2. Take Jacksonville -2 at Pittsburgh.  I don't know who got this game with Jacksonville +1 early in the week, but boy did they take Vegas to the cleaners on that!  The line has moved 3 points already because everybody and his dog is on the Jacksonville bandwagon.  I'm on it too.  Jacksonville beat the Steelers before they lost Willie Parker and I'm just not convinced Big Ben (as good as he is) carry that team through nasty conditions (the field will be a cesspool, the temperature freezing) against a very physical JAC team that will play soft and try to prevent anything deep.  JAC will play to make the Steelers prove they can run--and nobody outside of western PA thinks they can do that against Marcus Stroud and co.  For the oddsmakers this could be an absolute disaster as everybody is on Jacksonville here. This game could have been a tough call at around Jacksonville -6 because the jags are not a team that is going to score a lot, they are grinders.  At -2, it's a steal!
3. Take the Giants +2.5 over the Bucs.  Yeah, I'm taking Eli Manning and the Giants on the road against the likely mistake-free Jeff Garcia and the Bucs.  Look, I love Jeff Garcia--I still don't know the Fourty-Niners got rid of him years ago.  He is a phenomenal player that "just wins" despite being undersized.  Further, I think Gruden was smart to rest his starters the last two weeks--I think that rest will help them. Why in the world then am I on the Giants in this game? One simple reason: the Patriots are really that good.  In a gut-check game last week (complete with the players voting to continue playing the starters at half-time) against the league's best team the Giants gave the Pats all they wanted.  I don't care about some players getting banged up in the losing effort last week.  I care that Giants offense, notably Manning, Jacobs, and Boss, believe that they are within a play or two of the best.  The Bucs are not the best, by a long shot.  They Bucs will try to pressure Manning, no doubt, but I think he'll do enough to get them through.  I'd even take the Giants at 3 to 2 to win this game outright.  In a final act of cosmic pain, though, I can imagine this game being a Bucs win by 1 on a last-second field goal.
4. Take the Titans +9 over the Chargers.  The Chargers are the least convincing good team in the NFL.  They have a ton of weapons on offense, terrific defenders all over the field, but... you just feel that they don't have that edge that good teams have.  Maybe it's playing in good weather all the time and the rest of us are just bitter.  I'm taking the Titans to cover here, not win the game.  Jeff Fisher has done more with less this season than anybody else in the league; he was my pick for coach of the year or at least smoke-n-mirrors guy of the season.  (Quick! Name a wideout or linebacker or DB for Tennessee!)  He had to coach that team, not manage a bunch of stars.  At the time I write this the starting QB for the titans is Kerry Collins.  For now, I think he gives them a better chance to win the game than a limping VY.  Collins has playoff, even super bowl, experience and I think can play well enough to keep this game close.  Perhaps I should say that I he can score maybe one less touchdown than a Chargers team that I expect to under-achieve and escape, happy with a win.  For what it's worth, with a healthy Vince Young this game is betting dynamite and I'm pretty sure I wouldn't touch it. Young, when he can run, can do almost anything (good and bad) at any time, and I'd only bet that such a game would be fun to watch but it's not worth a financial commitment.