I went 2-1-1 last weekend for a winning percentage of .667. Not bad, but I felt that the two that were not wins were pretty bad beats for me. The Jags had a chance to salt away the win and let Pittsburgh back into the game before pushing. The Chargers, as I predicted, weren't particularly impressive but I really overestimated how well Tennessee would play. I have to say that I felt like 3-1 would have been more fair.
As to the upcoming weekend, let me make something clear on my opinion of 'momentum': I don't put much stock in momentum for teams that have the bye-week in the playoffs. These are teams that typically are very good, know how to win, and wrap up their place in the post-season early enough to coast a bit down the stretch. I do think momentum matters for a wildcard team or a team that had to win several games (maybe even in a row) in December to just get into the playoffs. As you'll see, it will affect my picks below.
- Take the Hawks to cover but possibly lose to Green Bay, +7.5. I think this is likely to be a competitive game. The weather (-1 C, possibly snow) will make running more important than it might otherwise be to these two pass-happy teams and I think this will keep the scoring down--but really not give either team a decisive edge. Both will still throw more than most playoff teams, though. I really feel that, sadly for my hometown Hawks, their fate of winning and losing in this game comes down to one guy--and he plays for the Pack. Brett Farve, on a cold snowy day at Lambeau Field, can lead any team to a victory over any other team. He's got the special magic and feeds off the energy of the fans and the historic setting. If he gets hot early, don't be surprised to see the Pack change to "3 yards and a cloud of snow" for the remainder of the game. If Farve can't conjure his usual level of magic, Seattle may have a chance to win the game. I expect this to be one that Seattle just can't quite win due a very strong Packers defense and the lack of the bruising type of runner that could get big chunks of yardage late in the game. The Seahawks will ride Matt Hasselbecks arm: he's carred them to Wisconsin but the decision on who is going home still belongs to the old man from Mississippi.
- Take New England and give up the whopping 13.5 points to Jacksonville. In my heart, I want to see the Jags pull the upset, but with my head (and my wallet in my hand) I just can't see it. Yeah, I know the Pats defense is overrated, especially against the run and that Jags are "built for playoff football" with their running game and run-defense (although M. Stroud was a big part of that). There are some reasons, though, that I don't like the Jags in this game even with a two touchdown cushion in the spread. First, the late-game problems against Pittsburgh. If you make mistakes against the Patriots, they will punish you much more than the Steelers. They are too potent on offensive to give extra chances, and Jacksonsville didn't show me that they can finish a team off when they have the lead last week. Second, and more importantly, for all the talk about running the ball in the playoffs, you have to have the threat of the deep pass to keep defenses honest. Nobody can run against eight or even nine-man fronts. (Look at what the passing game in Indy did for Edgerin James before he foolishly left.) The Jags quarterback, who I love, and their receivers, who I don't even know, aren't enough of a threat to consistently make a Bellicheck-coached defense respect the deep pass. The Jags aren't likely to beat themselves with penalties and turnovers, but they'll punt a great deal. Similarly, I don't think Jags run-defense will make that much difference, as good as it us, because the Pats will simply not run. They'll go to 4- and 5-wide sets and let Brady throw it, as they have done several times this season. Finally, the weather helped New England. With temperatures maybe reaching 10C and no sign of the horrible January snow, slush, and freezing rain one would expect, Brady will be able to throw to his heart's content. The problem for the Jags is that his heart is black and there will be no mercy.
- Take the Colts and the -9 against the Chargers. I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Chargers don't play as well as their talent. With the extra week of rest, a crazy home field, and the return of M. Harrison I think the Colts will simply outscore the Chargers. (I think this game might be an interesting play for the over at 45.5.) The Colts are too good and too well-coached to make the mistakes they did in San Diego earlier this season--in a game that, frankly, they had a chance to win and perhaps should have won. I can see this game being over at the half and P. Manning resting in the 4th to get ready for New England in a week's time. The only way (and it's remote) I can see the Chargers covering is by running effectively play after play. At a slower tempo, they have a chance... but do you really see the Colts not coming out firing in the RCA Dome?
- Finally, my upset of the week: Take the Giants and the 7.5 against the 'Boys. As I said, I think momentum matters for some teams and not for others. The Giants clearly have it. The Cowboys, on paper, are better at nearly every position than the Giants--except the defensive line. I'd expect Romo to be under pressure all day and without T. Owens in top form (if he plays at all) the Giants won't have to worry so much about coverage. If I had a good enough odds, I'd actually take the Giants to win this game outright. I do not think this is the "break-out" game for E. Manning; I don't think he's the type of guy that has break-out games. He's learning what he needs to do, not what the media tell him the quarterback of the Giants should do. Last week, he was solid if unspectacular against the Bucs (20 of 27, 185 yds, 2TDs, no picks). I am certain that his coaches and teammates are telling him the same thing I am: 'Be yourself, don't get crazy when throwing, and let us help you win this game.' The Cowboys have had games this season where they looked pretty fragile and I'm not convinced that this is a team that knows (yet) how to win a game ugly, if necessary. They are a top-gear team and if the Giants can pressure Romo and not give up easy takeaways I think they can slow the game's pace down to one that favors them to win.
